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As the initial shocks of the ongoing global economic crisis begin to normalize -- hopefully by the end of 2009 -- some countries will continue decoupling more visibly, if not during the crisis, definitely during the subsequent period of expansion.
As entrepreneurship requires a long-term orientation and strategies developed in accordance with this orientation, investors should keep their eyes on Turkey even during the "worst" conditions of global crisis.
There are many reasons to approach Turkey with a long-term perspective beyond the current economic meltdown affecting the world. As a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is one of the largest countries in Europe, with a dynamic and young population of 70 million. Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world with a fully convertible currency and liberal trade and payment regimes. The country's financial sector is fully integrated with the global system with state-of-the-art management, information technology and marketing techniques. The early 2000s saw sweeping reforms coupled with political stability, ushering in a new era for Turkey in which its position has been upgraded to that of a first-class emerging market.
Turkey is strategically located where East and West, Asia and Europe and Islam and Christianity meet. On the one hand, Turkey has adopted the universal values of democracy with a well-functioning parliamentary system, and on the other, it has deep-rooted and well-established relations and bonds with Islamic and Asian societies. This unique geopolitical position presents both challenges and opportunities for Turkey.
Turkey's economy is continuously growing, while per capita income (based on purchasing power parity) and gross national product (GNP) have reached $8,000 and $700 billion, respectively. Turkey's economy is believed to have grown around 3 percent in 2008, a year of global catastrophe. However, due to the global financial crisis and weaker domestic demand, the expected growth rate for 2009 ranges from 4 percent according to the government to 2 percent according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Over the last decade Turkey has developed into a crossroads for the movement of people, goods and services. One should note that its proximity to the Middle East and Central Asia makes Turkey an inevitable route for energy, oil and gas on their way to Europe. Meanwhile, the EU has opened the door to Turkey for full membership, despite some political resistance from certain groups, which makes Turkey an interesting destination for global investors.
Politically, Turkey has strong relations with Western powers and has seats at leading global organizations, including the UN Security Council, NATO, the Council of Europe, the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). Turkey has peaceful relations with all regional powers despite the fact that the region has a delicate balance of power.
Turkey has enjoyed political stability for the last seven years thanks to a single-party government with sound electoral support (47 percent in the last elections in 2007). The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), with its roots in moderate Islamic tendencies, has initiated unprecedented political, economic and social reforms. The country is politically (less military influence) and economically (limited governmental authority in public banks and the economy in general) more liberal than its regional peers.
I will pause here after providing the overall perspective regarding investment opportunities in Turkey for this year. In my next column I will try to provide a list of major areas contributing to Turkey's status as a viable investment powerhouse for both international and domestic investors.
14/01/2009
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